The market right now
Where the five markets I work in actually stand, what has changed since last year, and which of these numbers is worth anything to you.
September 2026 · the short version
Plenty of choice, and not much urgency
Every one of these markets is carrying more than four months of inventory, and two of them, Oakville and Halton Hills, are carrying roughly six or more. Two to three months is the range that usually reads as balanced, so buyers currently have time, options and room to negotiate almost everywhere in Halton and Peel.
The part that surprises people: there are fewer homes for sale than a year ago in all five of these markets. Supply is not piling up. Sales are simply slow relative to what is already listed, and that is what keeps the months-of-inventory figure high.
September 2026
The five markets, side by side
| Municipality | Months of inventory | Median price | Sales | Active listings |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mississauga | 5.1buyers' market | $868,000−1.2% | 468−6.4% | 2,408−11.7% |
| Oakville | 6.6buyers' market | $1,211,500−3.1% | 162−17.3% | 1,073−19.4% |
| Milton | 4.4buyers' market | $917,500−3.9% | 118−10.6% | 522−18.4% |
| Halton Hills | 6.0buyers' market | $889,000−15.3% | 45−25.0% | 269−4.6% |
| Burlington | 4.3buyers' market | $880,000−10.1% | 177−10.2% | 761−13.2% |
TRREB Market Watch, September 2026, all home types, published October 6, 2026. Percentages compare with September 2025, from the September 2025 edition. Months of inventory is active listings divided by the month’s sales. Retrieved 2026-10-07.
The one chart worth looking at
How much supply each market is carrying
Months of inventory is the cleanest single read on negotiating power. It asks one question: at the current pace of sales, how long would it take to sell everything that is currently listed?
Market by market
What each one looks like
buyers' market
Mississauga
$868,000−1.2% vs September 2025
468 sales · 2,408 listings (−11.7%) · 5.1 months of supply
The deepest and most varied market I work in, and the one with the most inventory to compete with.
buyers' market
Oakville
$1,211,500−3.1% vs September 2025
162 sales · 1,073 listings (−19.4%) · 6.6 months of supply
The highest prices of the five, and a wide gap between the average and the median, because the top end pulls the average around.
buyers' market
Milton
$917,500−3.9% vs September 2025
118 sales · 522 listings (−18.4%) · 4.4 months of supply
Newer stock and a lot of similar homes on a street, which makes pricing more precise and competition more predictable.
buyers' market
Halton Hills
$889,000−15.3% vs September 2025
45 sales · 269 listings (−4.6%) · 6.0 months of supply
Georgetown, Acton and Glen Williams. The smallest market of the five, so a handful of sales moves the numbers and the comparables take more judgement.
buyers' market
Burlington
$880,000−10.1% vs September 2025
177 sales · 761 listings (−13.2%) · 4.3 months of supply
Often the answer for people who want Oakville space at a different number, and it currently has the tightest inventory of the five.
Median price, not average, because a handful of expensive sales drags an average around and tells you less. TRREB Market Watch, September 2026.
How to read these numbers without fooling yourself
Most market coverage leads with average price, which is the one figure that tells you the least. Average price moves when the mix of what sold changes. A quiet month for detached homes and a busy one for condos pulls the average down without a single house being worth a dollar less. Everything above is a median for that reason.
Inventory moves before price does. If you only watch one thing, watch the relationship between what is coming on, what is sitting there, and what is selling.
The four numbers worth watching
- Sales against new listings. When new listings outrun sales month after month, supply is building.
- Months of inventory, which is active listings divided by the month’s sales. In the GTA two to three months is the figure everyone works to as balanced, and that is the band used above. Nationally the benchmark is looser, closer to five months, because most of the country turns over more slowly than here. If you read a national article, it is not using the same yardstick.
- Days on market. The clearest signal of how hard buyers are competing, and the first thing to move when sentiment shifts.
- Sale price against asking. Useful in aggregate, misleading on any single house, because a home priced deliberately low to attract offers and a home priced high and reduced twice can finish at the same percentage.
Where a small market will lie to you
Halton Hills recorded 45 sales in September 2026. At that volume the median is decided by which handful of houses happened to close, so a double-digit move month to month usually means the mix changed, not that values moved that far. Mississauga, with 468 sales, is the only one of these five with enough volume for the monthly number to be worth much on its own.
The same trap applies in reverse. A market can show a falling median while well-prepared homes in good pockets still sell quickly, because the median is telling you what sold, not what yours is worth.
Why the municipal number is the wrong number
TRREB reports by municipality. Your house sits in a community, on a street, in a price band, in a property type, with a specific set of competition on the market that week. Georgetown detached under a million and Georgetown detached over two million are not the same market and never have been. The figures above set the weather. What decides your move is what is happening in the four or five streets around you.
That part I can only tell you by pulling the comparables for your street. Ask and I’ll do it.
Figures are drawn from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board’s MLS® data for the month stated and describe the market generally, not any specific property. Months of inventory and all year-over-year percentages are calculated from those figures. Nothing here is an appraisal or a prediction.
What is your street actually doing?
The municipal figures won’t tell you. The comparables will, and they take me about twenty minutes to pull.